Everett
It is October in Wood County. We had some light to heavy frosts with a light freeze. Next week temperatures are to rebound back into the seventies. The roller coaster of temperatures continues.
Still though am wondering, what will winter be like? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has Northern Ohio at warmer and wetter than normal. The Old Farmer’s Almanac has us at cold and dry. Talk about two different weather predictions. So, I am left with my tried and possibly true winter weather forecaster, the woolly bear caterpillar.
According to folklore, the black-and-brown caterpillars of the tiger moth species can predict just how cold and snowy it is going to be for the upcoming winter when spotted during the fall season. The caterpillars have black bands at each end of their bodies and a reddish-brown section in the center. Folk wisdom has it that when the brown band is narrow, winter weather will be harsh. How accurate is this? Surveys have found that woolly worms’ weather predictions have been accurate 80% of the time since the 1950s.
The banded woolly bear (Pyrrharctia isabella) is one of the caterpillar species of medium-sized tiger moths in the family Erebidae. Woolly bear caterpillars have short, stiff bristles. The sharp-pointed bristles serve to defend the caterpillars. However, they are not stinging hairs; they do not inject venom. Still, some people suffer severe localized reactions if the hairs penetrate their skin.
Woolly bear’s common name comes from their defensive posture of rolling themselves into a tight ball when disturbed looking like a bear. Their resemblance to hedgehogs is referenced by the alternate common name “hedgehog caterpillars.”
According to folklore, the greater the amount of black on a banded woolly bear, the more severe the winter weather. Also, the position of the widest dark bands predicts which part of the winter will be the coldest. If the dark band is widest at the head end, the beginning of winter will be severe. If the dark band is widest at the tail end of the caterpillar, winter will go out like a lion. The predictive ability of the caterpillars is further fine-tuned by “reading” the 13 segments of the caterpillar’s body which are said to correspond to the 13 weeks of winter.
The folklore that banded woolly bear caterpillars can predict winter weather dates to the American colonial days. However, we can thank Dr. Charles Howard Curran for giving credibility to this myth, perhaps inadvertently. Curran was a noted entomologist who served as curator of insects and spiders for the American Museum of Natural History in New York City until his retirement in 1960. In October 1948, Curran and fellow AMNH entomologist Mont Cazier, along with their wives, traveled to (Woolly?) Bear Mountain State Park about 40 miles north of NYC. They collected 15 banded woolly bear caterpillars and dutifully measured the lengths of the black end bands and rusty brown middle bands.
Instead of producing a scientific paper to be perused and parsed by his entomology colleagues, Curran’s “survey results” predicting the winter weather for 1948 were announced on the front page of the Oct. 28, 1948, issue of the New York Herald Tribune. The wooly bear caterpillars predicted a mild winter … which turned out to be correct.
Rigorous research has subsequently debunked the weather prognostication value of banded woolly bears.
Even with sound university-based research I am still hoping the wooly bear caterpillar I saw crossing our driveway is 80% accurate in predicting the upcoming winter season. The caterpillar had a wide reddish-brown middle section with narrow black bands at both ends of its body. This means a mild winter. Of course, there is a 20% chance the wooly bears caterpillar prediction is wrong.
There are many ways to predict winter weather in Wood County. My best bet is to hibernate and wait until spring.
